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制造业更受青睐 IC走势或偏强
2018-08-17 01:23 期货日报
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【金融曝光台315特别活动正式启动】近年来,银行卡被盗刷、买理财遇飞单的案例屡见不鲜,金融消费者维权举步维艰,新浪金融曝光台将履行媒体监督职责,帮助消费者解决金融纠纷。 【在线投诉】

  刚经历完美联储加息,市场本以为可略微喘息之际,美国再度挑起中美贸易摩擦,全球股市再度进入跌势,A股似有二次探底之势。由于贸易争端走向仍存不确定性,A股风险偏好或将继续存在扰动,期指的调整期或将相应延长。在不出现恐慌式下跌的情形下,受益于产业升级,中证500期指IC走势或表现更强。

  贸易摩擦升级忧虑扰动市场

  当前,市场最关心的问题在于美国发起的中美贸易争端走向。去年中国经济企稳回升,是在投资、消费“两驾马车”出现回落,外需贡献由负转正情况下形成。因此,若中美贸易之争持续,乃至进一步扩大范围到其他国家或国际组织,市场对今年经济增长的预期并不利。对资本市场而言,由于美方已出台的贸易保护措施存在一系列步骤,包括加增关税的征收目录将在4月6日前公布,在随后的30天将进入公示期等,其间均存在不确定性。由于特朗普表示对华征收关税只是第一步,后期美方将继续采取措施,预计市场风险偏好将继续承压,对指数依旧呈现利空。

  不过,中美贸易之争作为突发的超预期因素,并非是市场中期走势的核心驱动力量。从绝对体量来看,目前中国出口占GDP比例约为19%,对美出口占总出口不到20%。今年宏观形势走向,更取决于地产、基建等边际转弱的风险。政策面来看,虽然财政政策定调积极,但考虑到地方债务过度扩张的风险,支出结构上将向民生领域倾斜。PPP层面退库项目增多,严防异化成新的政府融资平台,今年基建增速下调。楼市方面,全国两会前后热点一二线城市的调控政策依旧趋严;土地拍卖溢价率回落,甚至出现流拍情况,给未来地产投资预期进一步增加走弱压力。货币政策在宏观审慎监管框架搭建完善前以及经济下行压力未明显增大前,当前偏紧的金融环境很难有方向性的变化。

  周期“熄火” IH表现更弱

  整体上,代表周期及权重品种的上证50期指IH走势将更为弱势。当前市场情绪重新进入到“低落期”,海外贸易战扰动以及国内经济转弱、监管靴子仍未落地的情况下,市场情绪难有全面改善空间。

  美国对华展开贸易大棒,表面上是贸易逆差问题,背后实质是中国经济实力增加后,美国对华遏制程度的进一步加深。美国针对高科技等领域征税,并直接指明瞄准“中国制造2025”产业,避免中国在未来主导全球经济的产业上对美国构成挑战。这从另一方面也说明,当前中国经济转型,制造业升级所选择的方向的必要性和正确性。在外部压力增大的情况下,更容易激发内部凝聚信心,积极追赶的动力。在资本市场当中,制造业内的信息科技相关产业或进一步得到资金的青睐,对中证500期指IC将存在更多的利多作用。在不出现恐慌式的暴跌情形下,预计IC走势将强于IH。           (作者单位:国泰君安期货)

责任编辑:罗思杨

制造业 期指 中美贸易

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